Thiruvananthapuram, June 24 (BPNS)
The South West monsoon touched Kerala on June 8, 2023 as against the normal date of June 1, 2023 as per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD was expecting the SW Monsoon to hit the state on June 4 ,but the severe cyclonic storm, Biparjoy delayed the onset of monsoon in state.
However there is a shortage of rainfall in many parts of the state especially in South Kerala. In selected areas of North Kerala, there is abundant rain but in some parts in North and Central Kerala, there is a shortage.
The predictions of the IMD on the onset of monsoon since 2005 have been proven correct but it got delayed by only four days due to the phenomenon of Biparjoy cyclone in Arabian sea. It is to be noted that the IMD officially declares the monsoon onset when around 60% of the weather stations in the state record 2.5 mm of water or more for two consecutive days after May 10.
The IMD had confirmed that monsoon has touched the state after measuring the rainfalls in the weather stations in the state.
However in South Kerala ,especially the capital city of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Pathanamthitta districts, rains have been playing a hide and seek and many areas not getting proper rains.
Even as some areas of North and Central Kerala are receiving abundant rains, the weather department officials told IANS that the state was facing a deficit of rains. Even as the concern of the weather department can be taken into consideration, there has been abundant rains on and off. While there are no rains for a couple of days for the next three to four days there is more than above rainfall in central and North Kerala.
A yellow alert has been issued in Kozhikode, Kannur, Wayanad, Malapuram,Thrissur, Ernakulam, Idukki districts of Kerala for several days.
The shortage of rains in some parts of the state is attributed to the formation of a cyclonic circulation at an altitude of 1.5 km above Madhya Pradesh has influenced the monsoon. Weather officials said that this cyclonic circulation has diverted a section of the winds away from the Kerala coast leading to the shortage of rains.
The scientists in the Radar research institutes are of the opinion that once this cyclonic circulation above Madhya Pradesh diminishes, the monsoon will regain strength and expected to gain intensity.
It may be noted that South West monsoon has been deficient in Kerala 14 times during the period between 1901 to 2021 and 1918 witnessed the most deficient monsoon.
Even as several agencies have forecast 2023 as an El Nino year, that can destabilize monsoon, the data available with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that of the 15 El Nino years the country had witnessed between 1951 and 2022, only five have affected the state of Kerala.
As per the IMD data, Kerala received poor rainfall in 1965, 1972, 1987,2002 and 2015. However during the six El Nino years of 1953,1957,1963,1969 and 1991 the state received an abundance of rainfall or rather above normal rainfall.
According to experts, Kerala need not worry going by the historical data of El Nino affect in state. Generally the El- Nino event happens between August and September but by then the state would have received 60 percent of its rainfall. The scientists also said that if there was a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the east), the state will negate the El Nino affect and expected to get good rains in the four months of South West monsoon.
It is to be noted that a departure of 19% plus or minus of monsoon is considered normal.
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