PK Krishnadas

Thiruvananthapuram, April 7:
The electoral battle in Thiruvananthapuram district is witnessing a significant shift from a traditional bipolar contest to a triangular fight, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerging as a decisive force, according to an opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Policy and Development Studies (CPDS).

The survey, carried out between March 18 and April 4 using a stratified multi-stage sampling method with 24,500 respondents, indicates that while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) retains a marginal edge, the United Democratic Front (UDF) remains close behind, making the contest one of the most competitive in the state.

As per the projections, the LDF is likely to secure six seats in the district, followed by the UDF with five, while the NDA is expected to win three key constituencies. Despite being third in the overall tally, the NDA’s performance is being viewed as strategically significant, particularly in urban and politically sensitive segments.

Vote share projections further underline the tight race, with the LDF at 38.4 per cent and the UDF at 38.1 per cent. The NDA, with 22.8 per cent, is benefiting from the narrow gap between the two fronts, with analysts pointing to vote division as a critical factor aiding its rise.

The NDA’s projected victories are concentrated in Kazhakuttam, Nemom and Kattakada, where senior leaders V. Muraleedharan, Rajeev Chandrasekhar and P.K. Krishnadas are in the fray. While Kazhakuttam and Nemom show relatively comfortable leads, Kattakada is shaping up to be the closest contest in the district.

In Kattakada, the NDA is projected to secure 35.2 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the UDF at 34.3 per cent, with the LDF at 30.1 per cent and others at 0.4 per cent, highlighting the impact of vote splitting.

The UDF is projected to win five constituencies — Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu, Kovalam, Aruvikkara and Neyyattinkara — though most are expected to be closely fought. In Vattiyoorkavu, the projected margin is less than one percentage point.

The LDF continues to hold its base in rural and semi-urban constituencies such as Parassala, Attingal, Chirayinkeezhu, Varkala, Nedumangad and Vamanapuram, supported by strong organisational networks and cadre presence.

According to C. Rajeev, Director of CPDS, the findings reflect ground-level voter sentiment gathered across diverse demographic groups. The survey also highlights evolving voter behaviour, with women voters — who constitute 52.4 per cent of the electorate — favouring welfare-oriented governance, while urban voters are increasingly open to both the NDA and UDF.

With eight of the 14 constituencies expected to be decided by margins of less than five per cent, Thiruvananthapuram is set to witness one of the closest electoral contests in Kerala, where micro-level swings and tactical voting could prove decisive.