Nilambur, Kerala (June 18, 2025)

The CPI(M)’s decision to field prominent young leader Swaraj from Nilambur — a constituency with limited organisational strength for the party — is widely seen as a political message to sitting MLA PV Anwar, more than a purely winnable electoral bet.

Swaraj, who had contested from Nilambur in the last assembly election and lost despite a strong pro-Left wave across the state, had since stepped back into organisational work.

With defeat once again looming large, Swaraj was initially reluctant to contest from the seat, fully aware of the unfavourable ground realities in Nilambur.

To overcome his reservations, the CPI(M) leadership reportedly offered Swaraj a promise of a Rajya Sabha seat and key national-level responsibilities.

But even this assurance now seems uncertain, as a defeat in Nilambur could significantly weaken his standing within the party and reduce his chances of entering Parliament.

Being a native of Nilambur, Swaraj arguably has a clearer understanding than anyone else of the CPI(M)’s weak prospects in the constituency. Party sources indicate he had expressed disinterest in contesting, but was ultimately persuaded — if not pressured — by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to enter the fray.

The lure of a Rajya Sabha seat, regardless of the bypoll outcome, was reportedly part of the deal.

However, the Rajya Sabha math is not in Swaraj’s favour .

In April 2027, the terms of three Rajya Sabha members from Kerala — John Brittas, Dr. V. Sivadasan, and P.V. Abdul Wahab — will expire.

Of the three, two seats currently belong to the LDF, and one to the UDF. But with strong anti-incumbency currents, the UDF is seen as a frontrunner in the 2026 Assembly elections.

If the UDF secures a majority, it could win two of the three Rajya Sabha seats, leaving only one for the LDF.

In such a scenario, Swaraj’s hopes would rest on the lone LDF seat — a situation where the competition for nomination will be fierce, and the party’s leadership dynamics may shift drastically, especially if Pinarayi Vijayan is no longer Chief Minister.

With the possibility of Vijayan’s internal clout waning post-2026, even that one seat may not be within his influence to assign.

Thus, what was promised to Swaraj as a political elevation could turn into a mirage — echoing past instances of unmet assurances, such as that of former MP K.K. Ragesh.

Caught in an increasingly risky political gamble, Swaraj’s future in parliamentary politics now hinges precariously on the outcome in Nilambur.